A mere eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
